The Armstrong Report: Spring 2026 Firm Update

Are we having fun yet?

ECONOMY

We continue to believe that the data suggests the economy is more resilient than most think. In fact, without the conflict in Iran, we thought the economy would pick up steam as the year went on. However, the longer the price of oil stays elevated—especially above $95/barrel—the greater the likelihood that this begins to impact corporate earnings and affect consumers more significantly due to price increases.* As a reminder, oil is more than just in gasoline. See the list below:

Common Oil-Based Products

• Personal Care & Cosmetics: Mineral oil, petroleum jelly (Vaseline), liquid paraffin, lotions, hair products, and many perfumes are petroleum-derived.

• Plastics & Synthetic Materials: Most plastics (food packaging, water bottles), synthetic rubber, and fabrics like polyester and nylon are made from petroleum.

• Household Items: Detergents, cleaners, candles, crayons, paint, and lubricants are often oil-based.

• Transportation & Industrial: Gasoline, diesel, motor oil, asphalt (road tar), and lubricants are primary, direct products of crude oil.

• Other: Many pharmaceuticals, inks, pesticides, and fertilizers rely on petroleum byproducts.

MARKETS

Markets are down modestly for the quarter/year-to-date (as of 3/27/26 as I write this). They are still up nicely over the past 12 months. However, markets are slightly negative over the past six months. Moreover, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both pierced their 200 day moving averages and failed (as of 3/27) to go back above them. Deeper market drops tend to occur when this technical indicator is below. This has caused some of our risk managed models to trigger.*

THE FIRM

Back in March, we said goodbye, after almost six years, to our associate (and my son) Creighton Armstrong. He has decided to get his master’s degree in psychology and pursue a career in Clinical Psychology. We wish him well, and he will be missed.

*According to Bloomberg.com