We email the status of our WealthProtect System* monthly and give probability (Low, Mid, High) of a change in status within the next two months. We also include a commentary on actions taken this month as well as changes in overall asset allocation.
There were no triggers this month, although commodities were close to triggering back in. While US large cap equities have risen mildly in the past month, most other equity asset classes have seen more upside. Especially notable has been the tremendous performance of the US Aggregate Bond Index, powered by yields nearing all-time lows. So equities are doing well, volatility is low, and bonds are doing well; what could go wrong? The answer: plenty. The economy continues to sputter, and both US equities and US bonds appear overvalued by most reasonable measures. The combination is much like a forest that is full of dry tinder after a drought; there is plenty of fuel just waiting for the spark, even though at the moment there is no fire. Stay tuned.
Thank you for your trust.